2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted to Be Intensely Active

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has released an early forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, projecting it to be exceptionally active. According to Dr. Adam Lea and Nick Wood of EuroTempest Ltd, London, the season is expected to see activity about 30% above the 1991-2020 norm and approximately 50% higher than the long-term average from 1950-2023. The forecast, which covers the period from June 1 to November 30, 2024, points to warmer sea surface temperatures as a key factor in enhancing hurricane activity.

However, there is still a degree of uncertainty, particularly regarding the Caribbean trade winds, which could influence the accuracy of the forecast. TSR’s prediction model divides the North Atlantic into three regions, using separate models for each before combining them for an overall forecast.

The National Hurricane Center has released the names for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which include Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, and others. These names are part of a six-year rotation system used by the World Meteorological Organization, with names of notably severe storms being retired from future use. This forecast underscores the importance of preparedness and risk management for potentially affected regions.