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| TROPICAL STORM BERTHA |
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| 5 PM EDT, Friday, July 04, 2008 |
| Origin: |
Atlantic |
| Winds: |
52 mph |
| Pressure: |
1000 mb |
| Latitude: |
15.5 N |
| Longitude: |
31.6 W |
| Movement: |
18 mph WNW |
| TS Winds Extend: |
86 miles |
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TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST FRI JUL 04 2008
...BERTHA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 505
MILES...815 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT SOME
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2008
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 31.6W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 31.6W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 30.8W
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.2N 34.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.8N 37.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.4N 41.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 45.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.2N 51.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 31.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
Strike probability information is not available at this time.
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008
BERTHA HAD A RATHER RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND
MID-DAY...HOWEVER...SINCE THEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION WITH VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS BERTHA TRAVERSES OVER COOLER WATERS.
THEREAFTER...THE SSTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE PROJECTED
TRACK...HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN THE 3-5
DAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND KEEPS BERTHA’S INTENSITY BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO SHOW BERTHA REACHING HURRICANE
STATUS...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE...AND IS IN
LINE WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
BERTHA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OR 290/16. LITTLE CHANGE IN HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS AS THE STORM REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.
THE GFDL TRACK HAS NOW SHIFTED WESTWARD AND HAS JOINED THE REMAINDER
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF WHICH STILL INSISTS ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT HAS SHIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHWESTWARD AT DAYS 3-5... IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 15.5N 31.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 16.2N 34.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 16.8N 37.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 17.4N 41.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 17.9N 45.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 19.2N 51.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 21.5N 56.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 23.5N 60.5W 60 KT
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| TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS |
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| Origin: |
Pacific |
| Winds: |
0 mph |
| Pressure: |
0 mb |
| Latitude: |
N/A |
| Longitude: |
N/A |
| Movement: |
0 mph N/A |
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 04 2008
...BORIS DISSIPATES OVER THE OPEN NORTHEAST PACIFIC...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.9 WEST OR ABOUT
1420 MILES...2285 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH AND
THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BORIS NO LONGER HAS THE THUNDERSTORMS REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...17.1 N...130.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
Forecast information is not available at this time.
Strike probability information is not available at this time.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 04 2008
BORIS HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ALMOST 18 HOURS AND
THUS NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA REQUIRED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE COOL WATERS AND
STABLE AIR WERE THE LIKELY CAUSES OF BORIS’ DEMISE. THE REMNANT
LOW OF BORIS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE CYCLONE’S NORTHWEST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 17.1N 130.9W 25 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 16.9N 131.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 05/0600Z 16.6N 132.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 05/1800Z 16.1N 134.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 06/0600Z 15.7N 135.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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| TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS |
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| Origin: |
Pacific |
| Winds: |
0 mph |
| Pressure: |
0 mb |
| Latitude: |
N/A |
| Longitude: |
N/A |
| Movement: |
0 mph N/A |
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2008
...DOUGLAS DECAYING INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES...250 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...
14 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...
45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE REMAINS OF DOUGLAS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...21.0 N...111.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
Forecast information is not available at this time.
Strike probability information is not available at this time.
Discussion text is not available at this time.
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA..LOCATED ABOUT 505 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$
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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2008
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ |
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