Quiet Start to 2025 Hurricane Season May Be Deceiving as Forecasters Predict Spike in Storms Ahead

Despite a slow and seemingly uneventful start, experts say the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is far from over. Meteorologists, including Miami-based specialist Michael Lowry, warn that early calm doesn’t guarantee a quiet season. With July 31 marking the least active start in 16 years, it’s tempting to relax — but hurricane forecasters are urging vigilance as the most active months lie ahead.

According to data from Colorado State University (CSU), this year has seen slightly above-average named storms for June and July, but lags significantly in other indicators like hurricane days and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). The current ACE stands at just 1.5 compared to a 30-year average of 9.6 by the end of July. LSU meteorologist Paul Miller emphasized that the perceived quiet is largely relative; past years, such as 2023 and 2024, saw historically early and intense activity, skewing public expectations.

Looking ahead, forecasters note that over 80% of tropical activity typically occurs after August 1. Historically, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season doesn’t form until around August 11. Warm ocean temperatures and a shifting Madden-Julian Oscillation pattern could soon foster storm formation, and global models are already hinting at potential activity in early August.

The key message for insurance professionals and coastal communities: remain alert. The data, climate signals, and seasonal timing all suggest that while it’s been a quiet opening act, the peak of hurricane season is still to come.